Furniture exports surged 14.7% in November.

　　After a whole year of tepid demand and intense price competition in China’s furniture exports, the export data for November brought a surprising note of warmth—or, to be more precise, a flurry of activity “just before the storm.”

　　Data released by China’s General Administration of Customs on Sunday (December 8) showed that in November, China’s exports of furniture and its parts surged by 14.7% month-on-month, reaching RMB 38.38 billion. This robust rebound was not limited to furniture alone; the lighting industry saw an even more dramatic month-on-month increase of 20.7%, while ceramic products also rose by 16.9%.

　　This string of impressive figures stands in stark contrast to the sluggish performance accumulated throughout the year—during the first 11 months of 2025, total furniture exports still declined by 5.1% year-on-year.

　　Industry insiders point out that the unusually robust performance in November may not stem from a genuine recovery in end-demand, but rather from global importers’ panic-driven “front-loading procurement” ahead of the potential imposition of tariff barriers in 2026.

　　The “scissors gap” behind the data

　　According to customs data, in November alone, China's home furnishings and building materials industry generally showed signs of a V-shaped rebound.

　　Furniture and Parts: Exports totaled 38.38 billion yuan, up 14.7% month-on-month.

　　Lamp and lighting products: Exports totaled 20.08 billion yuan, up 20.7% month-on-month.

　　Ceramic products: Exports totaled 12.11 billion yuan, up 16.9% month-on-month.

　　However, when viewed over the full year, the picture remains stark. In the first 11 months, furniture exports totaled 410.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year contraction of 5.1%; lighting fixtures and lamps saw a cumulative decline of 10.8%. This “sharp monthly surge followed by a year-to-date cumulative drop” reflects the extreme volatility that furniture exporters will face in 2025.

　　“Usually, November isn’t the traditional peak season for furniture exports, since most Christmas orders have already been shipped by October,” an industry insider analyzed. “This off-season surge is largely driven by price cuts and promotions on the supply side, as well as stockpiling anxiety on the demand side.”

　　Surge in export grabbing

　　Although official data do not mention it directly, the market generally believes that November’s surge in exports is closely linked to the increasingly stringent trade policies of the United States and the European Union.

　　As 2025 draws to a close, global supply chains are preparing for potential tariffs that could take effect in 2026. Particularly under the shadow of policy uncertainty in the United States, many large European and American retailers—such as Home Depot and Walmart—are starting to ask their suppliers to ship goods ahead of time in order to lock in the 2025 tariff rates. This “rush-to-export” phenomenon is especially pronounced in furniture, a product highly sensitive to tariffs.

　　Moreover, the EU’s anti-dumping investigation into products such as Chinese hardwood plywood—imposing a tariff of 86.8%—has also prompted relevant supply chains to accelerate shipments ahead of the implementation of these punitive measures. This explains why, despite continued weakness in the U.S. and European real estate markets, container throughput at Chinese ports rebounded in November.

　　The Redemption of the Southern Hemisphere

　　In addition to “grabbing exports,” the structural shift in China’s export landscape also served as a key pillar supporting November’s data.

　　While exports to the U.S. and Europe are under pressure, China’s trade ties with the “Global South” are strengthening at an unprecedented pace. Data show that in the first 11 months, China’s imports and exports to ASEAN grew by 8.5%, while its trade with Africa and Latin America increased by 18.7% and 5.6%, respectively.

　　For Chinese furniture manufacturers, this is not merely a change in statistical methodology—it represents a fundamental shift in their survival strategy. An exporter from Foshan, Guangdong, said: “In the past, we focused on the U.S. market; now, we’re targeting infrastructure projects in the Middle East and the urbanization process in Southeast Asia.”

　　Lu Dalang, Director of the Statistical Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, pointed out that China has achieved double-digit growth in both imports and exports with more than 110 countries worldwide. This diversified approach has to some extent offset the impact of shrinking demand in Western markets, demonstrating the resilience of China's foreign trade.

　　Despite the bustling port and tight container availability, factory owners aren't wearing many smiles.

　　“Export volumes have grown, but profits haven’t,” a furniture manufacturer from Zhejiang admitted frankly. To grab orders amid fierce overseas competition and to cope with intense domestic rivalry, exporters have generally adopted a strategy of “trading price for volume.” Moreover, although November’s export figures look impressive when measured in RMB, considering exchange-rate fluctuations and rising raw-material costs, the actual profits that end up in their pockets remain slim.

　　From a macro perspective, China’s overall merchandise trade exports rose 5.7% year-on-year in November, indicating that the manufacturing engine remains strong. However, for the furniture industry, November’s rebound was more akin to a release of pent-up pressure.